Saturday, October 30, 2010

China may need to plot a long term strategy to live without Japan

By China Watcher

The diplomatic skill of the Japanese in handling its relationship with China is deplorable. Perhaps, the hard line stance and the recent comments on the disputed isles were strengthened by the military and moral support given by its main protector, the US.

The US, a country which dwells on its technological superiority and military might played the game of a two-timer – on one hand to be a strong protector of Japan and on the other hand to try to come in as a mediator to the current flare between the second and third largest economies. So can you really trust the US? The answer is obvious.

Rare earth is a commodity which we know is depleting in its supplies throughout the world and it is China right to limit the volume of export to manage and to preserve the commodity for future generation. Furthermore, the extraction of the minerals is known to pose a major health risk due to the polluting effect of the industry. China is indirectly telling the users that it is the right time for these users to search for the minerals elsewhere and China is not interested to be a 97% world producer of such commodity at the lowest price indefinitely. The cheap price of its own commodities can best be used in its own industries where the consumption is already assured. But Japan and other Western nations continue to make a hue and cry over the issue, perhaps, to portray to the world that China is an unethical producer and neighbor.

Japan will not relent on the few islets which remain an important part of Japanese mission to stretch its sovereignty claim that would include even Taiwan and certain parts of Philippines under the 200 km exclusive economic zone from the nearest islets or atolls.

China must clearly re-look at a strategy to be less dependent on Japan and if possible, to plot the country mission to grow and develop further without Japan.

China, being a self sufficient country with a huge productive population, can survive without Japan but I am very doubtful Japan can survive without China, given that the US, a strong provider to the island nation 30 years of prosperity, is at the pinnacle of its economic and military level and is now on a declining slope. But the Western media and many experts from the West still do not accept this fact willingly but to try to hide the outright shame of losing the status to an Asian country that do not practice Western liberal democracies. That is the main reason why these Westerners and power makers from the West (with a clear hidden agenda) have been promoting India, not because of its potential as a future economic power but because it is a democracy. India has many fallacies and I don’t think it would even match up to China in the next 30 years. I have more faith in Brazil than India when it comes to making a prediction even though I am the same person who believes that Asia should be main impetus of growth in the next 50 years.

China is aware that the US still plays an important part as the main provider of economic activities but over the past few years, we have also seen China role in enlarging its trade with other emerging countries other than the US. As for Japan, I can only view Japan as an investor and possibly as a miser in providing technology.

Presently, China view India as a more important economic partner than Japan and as such the redeployment of a strategy to move out of the Japanese economic sphere would not be very difficult although I have to admit a large measure of sacrifice had to be made by all Chinese people throughout the world in the short to medium term.

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