By China Watcher
There will be no covert plot for independence (disguised as autonomy to misled the West) as announced by the Chinese government. This means that only Tibet Autonomous region is up for discussion for LIMITED AUTONOMY and not Qinghai, Gansu or Sichuan, where there may be sporadic settlements of Tibetans. Though the Tibetans number only 5 million, there are spread across the four provinces and the Western world (short of a clear understanding of Chinese history) has provided the political religious leader, the Dalai Lama, with a “face” in the Tibetans’ 50 years struggle for “disguised autonomy’ from the Chinese government.
Last week in the quiet rebel base in India, the 500 over self appointed “exiled leaders” have decided to delay and play a “wait and see” attitude on its supposedly crafted decision to sever all ties with China and to follow the Dalai Lama “Middle Way” until a time when a consensus could be reached . The meeting was called by the Dalai Lama to all Tibetan exiles to discuss on the future direction of their “lost homeland” and the expected new initiatives against “Chinese rule” in Tibet. Some Western media had confidently predicted the formulation of a more radical approach in the Tibetan rebels’ struggle to achieve independence. How do you declare independence or sever ties with China when the Tibetan rebels or exiles do not even have a “country” or accepted as a recognized entity in the UN? Perhaps, the monks intend to resort to arms in its effort to achieve its goals.
I dare the Tibetan exiles to call for independence and to resort to military means to take back Tibet and the surrounding areas. Tibet is long gone. The Chinese government has a firm control in Tibet for the past 50 years with a strong paramilitary presence as and when needed. Even if the rebels adopt terrorist or military means, there is no chance that the Tibetans would be able to dislodge the Chinese total stranglehold of power from its centralized base in Beijing. This is the truth.
If violence is promoted in its independence plan, I believe there will be a sharp decline in international support (West support, most of the time) for the Tibetans and the objective would even be more remote than it presently is. India may have second thoughts of “leasing” the town for the Tibetan exiles to use given that the Chinese has become more politically influential at the world stage. The Western media will always try to portray a more optimistic outlook for the Tibetans than what it actually is, in order to keep their remaining spirit flying.
I am surprised that certain extremist groups like the Tibetan Youth Congress which has clearly ignored the Dalai’s leadership role in the March’s riots, was present at the meeting.
It was only in the 90s’ that I noticed that there were opportunities for negotiation with the Chinese government since the religious leader fled to India in a failed uprising in 1959. In actual fact, the many chances to negotiate were made available through the western media and rights groups one sided articles threatening China with boycotting tactics like in the recent Olympics, the increased pressure and requests coming from Western leaders who championed the Dalai Lama’s perceived peaceful cause.
Of course, the many “protest” or “petition” by these groups would not have brought the Chinese to the negotiating table if China is not fully integrated in the world community through its opening up economic programs in the late 70s. China an emerging nation needs continued international support and trade linkages to implement its national policy of sustainable economic growth well into the next 30 years or more.
Being someone who can understand the Chinese way of thinking in the People Republic of China, I commended China for being pragmatic by allowing negotiations to take place for the overall economic benefit of its people. The Dalai Lama and his hordes of rebels must understand their limitations and the bargaining power they truly possessed and must not try to ask for “something” which is not on the negotiating tables.
If the Tibetans exiles adopt a radical approach to fight for independence, not by pretending to be one as it is now but by making a clear stance internationally, I am sure the Chinese government will be able to devise a new confrontational strategy of “non-compromise” to wipe out all resistance.
Sadly then, the Tibetan independence fighters will need to bear the full brunt and might of the Chinese Military, and without forgetting the full morale support of the 1.3 billion Han Chinese. The Tibetans will end up like the “Red Indians” in the US.